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Early Warning System (EWS)

RIDE has created an Early Warning System (EWS) in collaboration with the Brown Policy lab and DataSpark, a tool designed to help administrators and teachers identify 9th – 12th grade students who are at risk of not graduating from high school. Using a series of indicators, the dashboard provides color-coded risk “bands” to inform a  multi-tiered system of support and keep students in school and on track to graduate.  

While the tool is only available to Rhode Island educators and administrators with RIDEmap credentials (please login using the link below), all affiliated interventions are available to everyone on this page and will be updated regularly.  

Interventions for Indicators

For phase 1 of RIDE’s revamped Early Warning System (EWS), interventions were selected to provide additional supports to users based on a student’s demonstrated “at risk” indicators.  

 

These interventions are: 

  • research-based or evidence-based wherever possible,  
  • largely based on existing resources from RIDE, and 
  • prioritized based on resources that are easily clickable and/or PDF-ready.  

Through a phased rollout, RIDE will be adding to these listed interventions. If you have an intervention that you would like to see included on the Early Warning System, please send it to OCCR@ride.ri.gov. 



Indicator 1 - On-track to Graduate

Indicator 1: On-track to Graduate

The On-Track to Graduate indicator was developed through a collaboration between The Brown Policy Lab, DataSpark, and RIDE and it shows the likelihood of students graduating on time if they stay on their current path. It is calculated using students’ historical data -- including attendance rates, number of infractions, test scores, retentions, and days of in-/out-of-school suspension -- up until the end of the past school year. 

A score is calculated and used to assign to a risk band, indicating the probability of dropping out at the beginning of the school year. The high risk band is assigned to the 3% of students with the lowest calculation; the yellow risk bad is assigned to the 5% of students with the next lowest calculation; all other students are assigned to the green or “low” risk band. It is important to emphasize the On Track to Graduate is calculated using predictive modeling and should be used in concert with the other indicators as well as academic course grades (not provided in the tool). 

The type of predictive modeling used for this indicator is called “machine learning.” Machine learning uses algorithms that automatically capture patterns in large volumes of past data to make predictions about the future. In this context, the algorithm analyzed RIDE records of all K-12 students in Rhode Island between 2004 and 2016 and “learned” patterns about the students who dropped out. Using this information, the algorithm predicts which current students are more likely to drop out based on more recent data reported to RIDE.

Due to the nature of this aggregate indicator, there are no affiliated resources for educators to utilize. 

Indicator 2 - Attendance Percentage

Indicator 2: Attendance

The Attendance percentage indicator shows the percentage of days students are present at school in a given school year. It is calculated by The number of days a student is present at school in a given school year divided by the number of days he/she is enrolled. Students’ Attendance Percentage is one of the most predictive individual indicators of whether or not a student will graduate on time. Historically, a 9th grade student attending school 85% of the time could expect to graduate on time less than 40% of the time. Attendance Percentage should, therefore, be the most carefully watched of the individual indicators. Below, you can find a graph of the relationship between Attendance Percentage and On-Time Graduation. Similar relationships exist in the other grade levels as well.

Resource

 

 


Indicator 3 - Grade Retention

Indicator 3: Grade Retention

The Grade Retention indicator shows the number of years students are older than a typical student in a given grade. Being older than one’s peers is an extremely accurate predictor of students’ likelihood of graduating on time with their cohort. It may indicate that students may already be off track to graduation due to grade retention or other circumstances.

Due to the nature of this indicator there are no affiliated resources for educators to utilize.  

Indicator 4 - Number of Suspensions

 

Indicator 4: Number of Suspensions

The Number of Suspensions indicator shows the number of suspensions accumulated by students over a school year. The Number of Suspensions indicator not only provides information on student behavior, but also offers a picture of the instructional time students lose. This indicator, while not as predictive of on time graduation indicator or attendance, it is still very informative. A 9th grader who is suspended once in the school year, changing the number of suspensions from zero to one, decreases likelihood of graduating on time as much as 20%. Similar relationships exist in other grade levels.

RESOURCES

 

 


 

Indicator 5 - ELA Proficiency

Indicator 5: ELA Proficiency

The ELA Proficiency indicator shows the proficiency level students received on the last administration of the most recent ELA state assessment, including RICAS, PSAT or SAT. Multiple studies throughout the U.S., as well as investigations in state assessment data collected by RIDE, have confirmed that student achievement on state standardized assessments are extremely predictive of his or her future on-time graduation. It is one indicator of student content mastery.

RESOURCES

 

 

Indicator 6 - Math Proficiency

Indicator 6: Math Proficiency

The Math Proficiency indicator shows the proficiency level students received on the last administration of the most recent Math state assessment, including RICAS, PSAT or SAT. Multiple studies throughout the U.S., as well as investigations in state assessment data collected by RIDE, have confirmed that student achievement on state standardized assessments are extremely predictive of his or her future on-time graduation. It is one indicator of student content mastery.

RESOURCES

 

 

Additional resources

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