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Early Warning System

RIDE has created an Early Warning System (EWS) in collaboration with The Policy Lab at Brown University and DataSpark, a tool designed to help administrators and teachers identify 6th – 12th grade students who are at risk of not graduating from high school.

Using a series of indicators, the dashboard provides color-coded risk “bands” to inform a multi-tiered system of support and keep students in school and on track to graduate.

While the tool is only available to Rhode Island educators and administrators with RIDEmap credentials (login to RIDEmap), all affiliated interventions are available to everyone on this page and will be updated regularly.

Learn more with the following EWS resources:

Interventions for Indicators

For phase 1 of RIDE’s revamped Early Warning System (EWS), interventions were selected to provide additional supports to users based on a student’s demonstrated “at risk” indicators.

These interventions are:

  • research-based or evidence-based wherever possible,
  • largely based on existing resources from RIDE, and
  • prioritized based on resources that are easily clickable and/or PDF-ready.

Through a phased rollout, RIDE will be adding to these listed interventions. If you have an intervention that you would like to see included on the Early Warning System, please send it to OCCR@ride.ri.gov.

Indicator 1 - Attendance Percentage

Indicator 1: Attendance


The Attendance percentage indicator shows the percentage of days students are present at school in a given school year. It is calculated by The number of days a student is present at school in a given school year divided by the number of days he/she is enrolled. Students’ Attendance Percentage is one of the most predictive individual indicators of whether or not a student will graduate on time. Historically, a 9th grade student attending school 85% of the time could expect to graduate on time less than 40% of the time. Attendance Percentage should, therefore, be the most carefully watched of the individual indicators. Below, you can find a graph of the relationship between Attendance Percentage and On-Time Graduation. Similar relationships exist in the other grade levels as well.

Resource


Indicator 2 - Grade Retention

Indicator 2: Grade Retention


The Grade Retention indicator shows the number of years students are older than a typical student in a given grade. Being older than one’s peers is an extremely accurate predictor of students’ likelihood of graduating on time with their cohort. It may indicate that students may already be off track to graduation due to grade retention or other circumstances.

Indicator 3 - Number of Suspensions

Indicator 3: Number of Suspensions


The Number of Suspensions indicator shows the number of suspensions accumulated by students over a school year. The Number of Suspensions indicator not only provides information on student behavior, but also offers a picture of the instructional time students lose. This indicator, while not as predictive of on time graduation indicator or attendance, it is still very informative. A 9th grader who is suspended once in the school year, changing the number of suspensions from zero to one, decreases likelihood of graduating on time as much as 20%. Similar relationships exist in other grade levels.

Resources


Indicator 4 - ELA Proficiency

Indicator 4: ELA Proficiency


The ELA Proficiency indicator shows the proficiency level students received on the last administration of the most recent ELA state assessment, including RICAS, PSAT or SAT. Multiple studies throughout the U.S., as well as investigations in state assessment data collected by RIDE, have confirmed that student achievement on state standardized assessments are extremely predictive of his or her future on-time graduation. It is one indicator of student content mastery.

Resources


Indicator 5 - Math Proficiency

Indicator 5: Math Proficiency


The Math Proficiency indicator shows the proficiency level students received on the last administration of the most recent Math state assessment, including RICAS, PSAT or SAT. Multiple studies throughout the U.S., as well as investigations in state assessment data collected by RIDE, have confirmed that student achievement on state standardized assessments are extremely predictive of his or her future on-time graduation. It is one indicator of student content mastery.

Resources


Indicator 6 - At-Risk of Dropout

Indicator 6: At-Risk of Dropout


The At-Risk of Dropout indicator was developed through a collaboration between The Brown Policy Lab, DataSpark, and RIDE and it shows the likelihood of students not graduating high school if they stay on their current path. Using students’ historical data up until the end of the past school year including attendance rates, number of infractions, test scores, retentions, and days of in-/out-of-school suspension, a risk band is assigned using a predictive modeling technique. The algorithm analyzed RIDE records of all K-12 students in RI between 2004 and 2016 and “learned” patterns about the students who dropped out in an effort to warn educators of the students at risk in the future.

A score is calculated and used to assign to a risk band, indicating the probability of dropping out at the beginning of the school year. The high risk band is assigned to the 3% of students with the lowest calculation; the yellow risk bad is assigned to the 5% of students with the next lowest calculation; all other students are assigned to the green or “low” risk band. It is important to emphasize the At-Risk of Dropout indicator is calculated using predictive modeling and should be used in concert with the other indicators as well as academic course grades (not provided in the tool).

Additional resources